亚博体育官网首页

Why India鈥檚 GDP is leaking!
ECONOMY & POLICY

Why India鈥檚 GDP is leaking!

India has a leaking bucket. So even while the economy grows, it is unable to benefit from the growth as our resources so added are not deployed efficiently. Even though our second quarter results indicate that the economy shrank by 7.5% as we unlocked our cities, our recoveries are stymied by the leakage in the system. One of the holes in its bucket is created by the banking sector. Between FY09 and FY19, the Government infused Rs 3.15 trillion in public sector banks. The Union Budget 2019 further provided for a Rs 700 billion provision to recapitalise banks. As on 30 September 2019, the public-sector banks were carrying non- performing assets (NPAs) of Rs 7.27 trillion. While moratorium and loan restructuring will cause a pause in the ever-increasing numbers in the NPA basket, there will a fresh round of recapitalisation very soon. Every year, the taxpayers fund Rs 2 trillion of NPAs of banks according to some estimates. RBI data shows that Indian banks wrote off nearly $85 billion over FY14-FY19, of which state-owned banks contributed nearly 80%.

The KV Kamath panel, set up to recommend eligibility parameters for the restructuring of loans for specific sectors hit by Covid-19, identified 26 sectors. It said power, construction, iron and steel, roads, real estate, wholesale trading, textiles, consumer durables, aviation, logistics, hotels, restaurants and tourism and mining are among the sectors that would require restructuring. This will further add to the drain in resources this year. The only way to plug this leak is by privatisation of banks. In an earlier article, 鈥�Are we headed for a Hindu rate of growth?鈥�, I had cited the case of the wealth HDFC Bank has built for its shareholders and, therefore, the case for privatisation of banks. The RBI panel has recently recommended that the corporate sector be allowed to set up private banks. Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya have vehemently argued against this. I concur. However, NBFCs such as those set up by Bajaj, L&T, Mahindra & Mahindra and Aditya Birla Group could qualify as their presence in the financial services sector could meet the needs of net worth, track record and reputation.

Increasing the number of banks could be another way to build value but it does not stop the leak in our GDP bucket. Last year, we completed 50 years of bank nationalisation and over the past six years, even the current NDA Government has witnessed the decimation of wealth under its watch. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already sought a reduction in the government stake from four banks: Punjab & Sind, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and IDBI Bank (LIC now owns 51% of it). But the pace of privatisation and divestment has been too lackadaisical.

India鈥檚 disinvestment target for 2020-21 is Rs 2.1 trillion against last year鈥檚 achievement of Rs 34.85 billion, against the 2019-20 target of Rs 1.05 trillion. Divestment crossed Rs 1 trillion only in 2017-18 in the past 10 years鈥擱s 37 billion from this was received by selling shares internally among PSUs; ONGC bought the Government鈥檚 51% stake for cash. The second highest divestment was in 2018-19 of Rs 80 billion. So, while FY 2018 and FY 2019 did send out a good signal for divestment, FY 2020 has slipped. A recent respite has come in the form of the BPCL disinvestment, which will provide succour in the form of Rs 400 billion and is not an eyewash as PSUs have been expressly forbidden from participating in the divestment process. The second most profitable PSU has elicited no response from Reliance, TOTAL, Aramco or BP, signalling that the family silver is corroding in value over time.

Other than BPCL, there are 19 more PSUs for which the Government has given in-principle approval for disinvestment, including the likes of Container Corporation of India, Bharat Earth Movers and Shipping Corporation of India. Given the tepid response to BPCL, this leak does not look like it will be plugged anytime soon.

The other hole is power distribution. Politicians have forced state electricity boards or discoms to sell electricity free or at highly subsidised rates to farmers and their vote banks. Discoms have, by now, accumulated losses of nearly Rs 1 trillion and have huge arrears of payment to suppliers like Coal India and the Railways. Here, too, privatisation of discoms is the answer.

Restoration of GDP will need these leaks to be plugged.

Author: Pratap Padode is Editor-in-Chief, & Founder,

Also read: Utility segments remain bright spots

India has a leaking bucket. So even while the economy grows, it is unable to benefit from the growth as our resources so added are not deployed efficiently. Even though our second quarter results indicate that the economy shrank by 7.5% as we unlocked our cities, our recoveries are stymied by the leakage in the system. One of the holes in its bucket is created by the banking sector. Between FY09 and FY19, the Government infused Rs 3.15 trillion in public sector banks. The Union Budget 2019 further provided for a Rs 700 billion provision to recapitalise banks. As on 30 September 2019, the public-sector banks were carrying non- performing assets (NPAs) of Rs 7.27 trillion. While moratorium and loan restructuring will cause a pause in the ever-increasing numbers in the NPA basket, there will a fresh round of recapitalisation very soon. Every year, the taxpayers fund Rs 2 trillion of NPAs of banks according to some estimates. RBI data shows that Indian banks wrote off nearly $85 billion over FY14-FY19, of which state-owned banks contributed nearly 80%. The KV Kamath panel, set up to recommend eligibility parameters for the restructuring of loans for specific sectors hit by Covid-19, identified 26 sectors. It said power, construction, iron and steel, roads, real estate, wholesale trading, textiles, consumer durables, aviation, logistics, hotels, restaurants and tourism and mining are among the sectors that would require restructuring. This will further add to the drain in resources this year. The only way to plug this leak is by privatisation of banks. In an earlier article, 鈥淎re we headed for a Hindu rate of growth?鈥�, I had cited the case of the wealth HDFC Bank has built for its shareholders and, therefore, the case for privatisation of banks. The RBI panel has recently recommended that the corporate sector be allowed to set up private banks. Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya have vehemently argued against this. I concur. However, NBFCs such as those set up by Bajaj, L&T, Mahindra & Mahindra and Aditya Birla Group could qualify as their presence in the financial services sector could meet the needs of net worth, track record and reputation. Increasing the number of banks could be another way to build value but it does not stop the leak in our GDP bucket. Last year, we completed 50 years of bank nationalisation and over the past six years, even the current NDA Government has witnessed the decimation of wealth under its watch. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already sought a reduction in the government stake from four banks: Punjab & Sind, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and IDBI Bank (LIC now owns 51% of it). But the pace of privatisation and divestment has been too lackadaisical. India鈥檚 disinvestment target for 2020-21 is Rs 2.1 trillion against last year鈥檚 achievement of Rs 34.85 billion, against the 2019-20 target of Rs 1.05 trillion. Divestment crossed Rs 1 trillion only in 2017-18 in the past 10 years鈥擱s 37 billion from this was received by selling shares internally among PSUs; ONGC bought the Government鈥檚 51% stake for cash. The second highest divestment was in 2018-19 of Rs 80 billion. So, while FY 2018 and FY 2019 did send out a good signal for divestment, FY 2020 has slipped. A recent respite has come in the form of the BPCL disinvestment, which will provide succour in the form of Rs 400 billion and is not an eyewash as PSUs have been expressly forbidden from participating in the divestment process. The second most profitable PSU has elicited no response from Reliance, TOTAL, Aramco or BP, signalling that the family silver is corroding in value over time. Other than BPCL, there are 19 more PSUs for which the Government has given in-principle approval for disinvestment, including the likes of Container Corporation of India, Bharat Earth Movers and Shipping Corporation of India. Given the tepid response to BPCL, this leak does not look like it will be plugged anytime soon. The other hole is power distribution. Politicians have forced state electricity boards or discoms to sell electricity free or at highly subsidised rates to farmers and their vote banks. Discoms have, by now, accumulated losses of nearly Rs 1 trillion and have huge arrears of payment to suppliers like Coal India and the Railways. Here, too, privatisation of discoms is the answer. Restoration of GDP will need these leaks to be plugged.Author: Pratap Padode is Editor-in-Chief, Construction World, & Founder, FIRST Construction Council.聽Also read: Utility segments remain bright spots

Next Story
Technology

HCL-Foxconn to invest Rs 37 billion in chip plant near Jewar airport

The Union Cabinet has approved the establishment of a new semiconductor unit near Jewar airport in Uttar Pradesh under the India Semiconductor Mission. This sixth plant, a joint venture between HCL and Foxconn, marks further progress in India鈥檚 semiconductor journey. The project will see an investment of Rs 37 billion.The facility will produce display driver chips for mobile phones, laptops, automobiles, PCs, and other digital devices. It is designed for a monthly capacity of 20,000 wafers and an output of 36 million units.Five semiconductor units are already in advanced stages of constructi..

Next Story
Real Estate

Brigade acquires Velachery land for Rs 16-billion project

Brigade Enterprises has acquired a 5.41-acre land parcel on Velachery Road, Chennai, through an outright purchase for Rs 4.417 billion. Located next to Phoenix Market City, the site will be developed into a premium residential project with a gross development value of approximately Rs 16 billion and a development potential of 0.8 million square feet.The project offers strategic access to both the OMR IT Corridor and Chennai鈥檚 Central Business District, promising strong connectivity and premium lifestyle offerings. Brigade plans to create signature residences focused on aesthetics, functional..

Next Story
Equipment

Liebherr marks 10,000th XPower wheel loader milestone

Liebherr-Werk Bischofshofen has rolled out its 10,000th XPower wheel loader, marking a major production milestone. The anniversary L 580 XPower model, featuring a power-split travel drive developed with ZF Friedrichshafen AG, was handed over to the BERGER Group in Passau.鈥淭he transmission from our partner ZF is a key component of the drivetrain in our XPower wheel loaders,鈥� said Gerhard Pirnbacher, Head of Quality Management at Liebherr. 鈥淲ith an impressive total of around 64 million operating hours already clocked up by XPower models, this transmission has proven its exceptional robustn..

Advertisement

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement