Why India鈥檚 GDP is leaking!
30 Nov 2020
4 Min Read
Editorial Team
India has a leaking bucket. So even while the economy grows, it is unable to benefit from the
growth as our resources so added are not deployed efficiently. Even though our second
quarter results indicate that the economy shrank by 7.5% as we unlocked our cities, our
recoveries are stymied by the leakage in the system. One of the holes in its bucket is created
by the banking sector. Between FY09 and FY19, the Government infused Rs 3.15 trillion in
public sector banks. The Union Budget 2019 further provided for a Rs 700 billion provision to
recapitalise banks. As on 30 September 2019, the public-sector banks were carrying non-
performing assets (NPAs) of Rs 7.27 trillion. While moratorium and loan restructuring will
cause a pause in the ever-increasing numbers in the NPA basket, there will a fresh round of
recapitalisation very soon. Every year, the taxpayers fund Rs 2 trillion of NPAs of banks
according to some estimates. RBI data shows that Indian banks wrote off nearly $85 billion
over FY14-FY19, of which state-owned banks contributed nearly 80%.
The KV Kamath panel, set up to recommend eligibility parameters for the restructuring of loans for specific sectors hit by Covid-19, identified 26 sectors. It said power, construction,
iron and steel, roads, real estate, wholesale trading, textiles, consumer durables, aviation,
logistics, hotels, restaurants and tourism and mining are among the sectors that would require
restructuring. This will further add to the drain in resources this year. The only way to plug
this leak is by privatisation of banks. In an earlier article, 鈥�Are we headed for a Hindu rate of growth?鈥�, I had cited the case of the wealth HDFC Bank has built for its shareholders and,
therefore, the case for privatisation of banks. The RBI panel has recently recommended that
the corporate sector be allowed to set up private banks. Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya
have vehemently argued against this. I concur. However, NBFCs such as those set up by
Bajaj, L&T, Mahindra & Mahindra and Aditya Birla Group could qualify as their presence in
the financial services sector could meet the needs of net worth, track record and reputation.
Increasing the number of banks could be another way to build value but it does not stop the
leak in our GDP bucket. Last year, we completed 50 years of bank nationalisation and over
the past six years, even the current NDA Government has witnessed the decimation of wealth
under its watch. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already sought a reduction in the
government stake from four banks: Punjab & Sind, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and
IDBI Bank (LIC now owns 51% of it). But the pace of privatisation and divestment has
been too lackadaisical.
India鈥檚 disinvestment target for 2020-21 is Rs 2.1 trillion against last year鈥檚 achievement of Rs 34.85 billion, against the 2019-20 target of Rs 1.05 trillion. Divestment crossed Rs 1 trillion
only in 2017-18 in the past 10 years鈥擱s 37 billion from this was received by selling shares
internally among PSUs; ONGC bought the Government鈥檚 51% stake for cash. The
second highest divestment was in 2018-19 of Rs 80 billion. So, while FY 2018 and FY 2019
did send out a good signal for divestment, FY 2020 has slipped. A recent respite has come in
the form of the BPCL disinvestment, which will provide succour in the form of Rs 400 billion
and is not an eyewash as PSUs have been expressly forbidden from participating in the
divestment process. The second most profitable PSU has elicited no response from Reliance,
TOTAL, Aramco or BP, signalling that the family silver is corroding in value over time.
Other than BPCL, there are 19 more PSUs for which the Government has given in-principle
approval for disinvestment, including the likes of Container Corporation of India, Bharat
Earth Movers and Shipping Corporation of India. Given the tepid response to BPCL, this leak
does not look like it will be plugged anytime soon.
The other hole is power distribution. Politicians have forced state electricity boards or
discoms to sell electricity free or at highly subsidised rates to farmers and their vote banks.
Discoms have, by now, accumulated losses of nearly Rs 1 trillion and have huge arrears of
payment to suppliers like Coal India and the Railways. Here, too, privatisation of discoms is
the answer.
Restoration of GDP will need these leaks to be plugged.
Author: Pratap Padode is Editor-in-Chief, & Founder,
Also read: Utility segments remain bright spots
India has a leaking bucket. So even while the economy grows, it is unable to benefit from the
growth as our resources so added are not deployed efficiently. Even though our second
quarter results indicate that the economy shrank by 7.5% as we unlocked our cities, our
recoveries are stymied by the leakage in the system. One of the holes in its bucket is created
by the banking sector. Between FY09 and FY19, the Government infused Rs 3.15 trillion in
public sector banks. The Union Budget 2019 further provided for a Rs 700 billion provision to
recapitalise banks. As on 30 September 2019, the public-sector banks were carrying non-
performing assets (NPAs) of Rs 7.27 trillion. While moratorium and loan restructuring will
cause a pause in the ever-increasing numbers in the NPA basket, there will a fresh round of
recapitalisation very soon. Every year, the taxpayers fund Rs 2 trillion of NPAs of banks
according to some estimates. RBI data shows that Indian banks wrote off nearly $85 billion
over FY14-FY19, of which state-owned banks contributed nearly 80%.
The KV Kamath panel, set up to recommend eligibility parameters for the restructuring of loans for specific sectors hit by Covid-19, identified 26 sectors. It said power, construction,
iron and steel, roads, real estate, wholesale trading, textiles, consumer durables, aviation,
logistics, hotels, restaurants and tourism and mining are among the sectors that would require
restructuring. This will further add to the drain in resources this year. The only way to plug
this leak is by privatisation of banks. In an earlier article, 鈥淎re we headed for a Hindu rate of growth?鈥�, I had cited the case of the wealth HDFC Bank has built for its shareholders and,
therefore, the case for privatisation of banks. The RBI panel has recently recommended that
the corporate sector be allowed to set up private banks. Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya
have vehemently argued against this. I concur. However, NBFCs such as those set up by
Bajaj, L&T, Mahindra & Mahindra and Aditya Birla Group could qualify as their presence in
the financial services sector could meet the needs of net worth, track record and reputation.
Increasing the number of banks could be another way to build value but it does not stop the
leak in our GDP bucket. Last year, we completed 50 years of bank nationalisation and over
the past six years, even the current NDA Government has witnessed the decimation of wealth
under its watch. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already sought a reduction in the
government stake from four banks: Punjab & Sind, UCO Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and
IDBI Bank (LIC now owns 51% of it). But the pace of privatisation and divestment has
been too lackadaisical.
India鈥檚 disinvestment target for 2020-21 is Rs 2.1 trillion against last year鈥檚 achievement of Rs 34.85 billion, against the 2019-20 target of Rs 1.05 trillion. Divestment crossed Rs 1 trillion
only in 2017-18 in the past 10 years鈥擱s 37 billion from this was received by selling shares
internally among PSUs; ONGC bought the Government鈥檚 51% stake for cash. The
second highest divestment was in 2018-19 of Rs 80 billion. So, while FY 2018 and FY 2019
did send out a good signal for divestment, FY 2020 has slipped. A recent respite has come in
the form of the BPCL disinvestment, which will provide succour in the form of Rs 400 billion
and is not an eyewash as PSUs have been expressly forbidden from participating in the
divestment process. The second most profitable PSU has elicited no response from Reliance,
TOTAL, Aramco or BP, signalling that the family silver is corroding in value over time.
Other than BPCL, there are 19 more PSUs for which the Government has given in-principle
approval for disinvestment, including the likes of Container Corporation of India, Bharat
Earth Movers and Shipping Corporation of India. Given the tepid response to BPCL, this leak
does not look like it will be plugged anytime soon.
The other hole is power distribution. Politicians have forced state electricity boards or
discoms to sell electricity free or at highly subsidised rates to farmers and their vote banks.
Discoms have, by now, accumulated losses of nearly Rs 1 trillion and have huge arrears of
payment to suppliers like Coal India and the Railways. Here, too, privatisation of discoms is
the answer.
Restoration of GDP will need these leaks to be plugged.Author: Pratap Padode is Editor-in-Chief, Construction World, & Founder, FIRST Construction Council.聽Also read: Utility segments remain bright spots
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