Last month I had cited the slowdown in the economy in this column and then just a few days later the GDP figures broke the markets. There are principally five reasons as elucidated by authors of a study by Centre for Social and Economic Studies for this slowdown:
- Wages for casual and self-employed workers grew by a mere 4.5% during seven quarters versus over 10% to 15% in the previous period
- Food inflation averaged 7.1% in last two years over 5.3% in the previous period
- GST collections grew at 11.5% versus GDP which grew by 9.3% creating an increased burden of indirect taxes on consumer demand
- Debt burden of households increased as a percentage of disposable income from 40% in 2019-20 to 48% in 2022-23 and further in 2023-24. Consequently, the debt servicing burden also rose by 20% over the same period
- Even though the market capitalisation surged by 89% between April 2020 and March 2024, retail investors lost Rs 1.81 trillion in the derivates market. Notably these losses were mostly borne by investors whose annual income was less than Rs 5 lacs
The finance minister needs to be alarmed with these reasons and the RBI ought to reconsider its stance on the monetary policy. As we wind down the financial year, we ought to also consider the cost of holding elections in the country which have been also the underlying reason for this slowdown. Given that the government spending was the main driver of the economic growth, its stalling during the year has also caused a lower than targeted spending and has led to a muted infusion of multiplication factors which help create the combustion in the economy. The last quarter of the financial year needs to accelerate the budgeted spending and the Union Budget, which is just a month away, needs to fuel this further. The monetary policy in February with the new governor ought to consider a drop in interest rates.
States like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu apart from Uttar Pradesh are ones which have transcended announcements into action and have begun pitching to investors. Maharashtra is likely to follow suit and has a good story to tell with its infrastructure quotient having been sufficiently raised. The Northeast region has a lot of potential and its current Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia has put his might behind scoring accelerated progress. Number of airports are being raised to 17 from 9, waterways have risen to 20, 19 projects worth 鈧�81,941 crore are currently underway, 5,500 kms of highways and MOUs worth 鈧�38,000 crore already signed, the region is becoming the hub of increased activity.
As we ended 2024, our former Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh passed away.聽 I have had the privilege of meeting late Dr Manmohan Singh in 1993 when I was editing Dalal Street Journal magazine, and we had hosted the Corporate Excellence Awards. Those days the liberalisation initiatives of the government, which Dr Singh along with the then Prime Minister Narsimha Rao, had engineered, had injected energy into India's sagging fortunes. My late father, VB Padode, also seen in the picture, led the equity cult information revolution, through the magazine in India.聽
Dr Singh arrived precisely at 6:20 PM and was escorted to the banquet hall. He inquired about our publishing activities and even bantered with us about the stock markets. Since I was seated next to Dr Singh, I noticed him glance at his watch as the program commenced 鈥� it was exactly 6:30 PM, the scheduled start time we had communicated to him.
His humility, impeccable conduct, and the insightful speech he delivered to the corporate leaders left a lasting impression on everyone present.聽
Do sign up for the 3rd Metro Rail Conference scheduled on 22nd January 2025 in Mumbai.
