Has India鈥檚 economy slowed down? This
question raises further follow-up queries like, 鈥業s it
rural demand?鈥� or 鈥業s it urban demand?鈥� The stock
market indices are amplifying the anxiety. Then,
there is the unravelling of a corporate scandal,
timed perfectly to coincide with the Parliament
session. Let鈥檚 dive into this.
First things first: it was the Government that had
been driving demand all along. The budgeted
expenditure of Rs.11.11 trillion for this year marked
an increase of Rs.1 trillion over the previous year. The
financial year began just as the elections heated up,
with the Government fully immersed in election
campaigning. The second quarter was impacted by
the monsoon and rising input costs, which hurt
profit margins.
The Government has lagged in its capex
spending, having utilised Rs.4.15 trillion
($ 49.18 billion) during April-September 2024,
accounting for only 37 per cent of the annual target
of Rs.11.11 trillion for FY2024-25. This figure is
lower than the Rs.4.9 trillion spent during the same
period in the previous fiscal year. The Economic
Affairs Secretary has expressed confidence that
although the capex target may fall short by Rs.55,500 crore, the Government is on track to
achieve spending of Rs.10.55 trillion, compared to
the previous year鈥檚 Rs.9.48 trillion. Data from
15 major states indicates that their combined
capex will need to grow by 40 per cent in the
second half to meet the fiscal year鈥檚 budgeted
target. For the Central Government, capex needs to
grow by 52 per cent, which seems unlikely.
The Government must race to meet its capex
targets in the coming months. The Ministry of
Roads, Transport & Highways (MoRTH) is set to
award 8,000 km of road projects in FY25, a
notable decline compared to previous years.
Between FY22 and FY23, MoRTH awarded an
average of 12,500 km of projects annually, but this
dropped to 8,581 km last fiscal and is expected to
remain modest at 8,000 km this fiscal, according to
a Crisil report. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari is
determined to reverse this trend. He has assured
that the ministry will approve another set of projects
in the pipeline, taking the total cost of projects cleared to Rs.2 lakh crore by December-end. In the
current fiscal, the ministry is targeting the
construction of 10,421 km of highways, which is
15 per cent lower than last year. For 2024-25,
the ministry鈥檚 capital expenditure target is Rs.2.72 lakh crore, just 2.9 per cent higher than the
previous fiscal鈥檚 achievement. The Maharashtra
elections have disrupted government machinery,
but it is hoped that the ruling party鈥檚 victory will
encourage the rollout of tenders, as the mandate
is for development.
Central public-sector enterprises (CPSEs)
and other agencies with annual capex targets of聽
Rs.100 crore and above have a combined target of聽
Rs.7.8 lakh crore for FY25. However, these
corporations have invested only聽
Rs.3.38 lakh crore
during April-September FY25, compared to聽
Rs.3.79 lakh crore in the same period last year.
During this period, the Railways Board鈥檚 capex fell
by over 19 per cent to聽
Rs.1.16 lakh crore.
The journey of development veers off course as
soon as an election looms on the horizon. The
riders become distracted and the pace slows down.
Now that the obstacles have been cleared, during
this critical period from December to March 2025,
spending must shift from a trot to a gallop.
Our forthcoming events in early 2025 include:
3rd Metro Rail Conference on Jnuary 22, 2025 In MumbaiAI Powered Data Centres on February 12, 2025 in MumbaiCement Expo Forum on March 5-6, 2025 in Hyderabad
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