HSBC Report: India to Lead Global Oil & Gas Market as China Slows
11 Dec 2024
2 Min Read
CW Team
India is expected to become a key destination for global oil and gas products as the country increases its refinery, petrochemical, LNG regasification, and pipeline capacity, while the Chinese economy experiences a slowdown, according to an HSBC report released.
The report suggests that global oil prices are likely to remain weak, which would benefit India since the country imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement. A decline in global oil prices would result in significant savings on India's import bill.
The HSBC report forecasts marginal growth in India's oil production, which is dependent on ONGC's ability to deliver on-schedule production and minimise the decline in nomination blocks. The report also predicts that by 2025, India's LNG regasification capacity will grow by at least 25 per cent, enhancing its ability to absorb global LNG. On the refining front, India is expected to increase its capacity by 9 per cent, adding 0.5 million barrels per day.
The report further highlights that the energy transition in India will accelerate, with oil and gas companies expected to begin investing in renewable energy, early-stage green hydrogen blending, and preparations for green hydrogen investments. Additionally, refinery transformation projects are anticipated to shift towards petrochemicals.
It also mentions that demand for India's petroleum products, particularly diesel, is slowing, a trend expected to continue as stricter emission norms encourage vehicle manufacturers to focus on electric and gas-driven vehicles.
Regarding investment, the report rates GAIL as a "Buy," predicting the company will benefit from improved gas infrastructure, range-bound LNG pricing, and new customers. It also rates HPCL, BPCL, and IOCL as "Buy," benefiting from weak oil prices. However, it advises a "Reduce" rating on ONGC due to the risk of falling oil prices and a "Hold" rating on PLNG, based on investments in petrochemicals and competing regas terminals.
The report concludes that global oil prices will face downward pressure, but gas prices are expected to rise in the near term. According to HSBC's European oil research head, Kim Fustier, while OPEC+ may manage the situation for now, the 2025 market remains balanced, with the outlook worsening for 2026 as surplus production grows if volumes return.
India is expected to become a key destination for global oil and gas products as the country increases its refinery, petrochemical, LNG regasification, and pipeline capacity, while the Chinese economy experiences a slowdown, according to an HSBC report released.
The report suggests that global oil prices are likely to remain weak, which would benefit India since the country imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement. A decline in global oil prices would result in significant savings on India's import bill.
The HSBC report forecasts marginal growth in India's oil production, which is dependent on ONGC's ability to deliver on-schedule production and minimise the decline in nomination blocks. The report also predicts that by 2025, India's LNG regasification capacity will grow by at least 25 per cent, enhancing its ability to absorb global LNG. On the refining front, India is expected to increase its capacity by 9 per cent, adding 0.5 million barrels per day.
The report further highlights that the energy transition in India will accelerate, with oil and gas companies expected to begin investing in renewable energy, early-stage green hydrogen blending, and preparations for green hydrogen investments. Additionally, refinery transformation projects are anticipated to shift towards petrochemicals.
It also mentions that demand for India's petroleum products, particularly diesel, is slowing, a trend expected to continue as stricter emission norms encourage vehicle manufacturers to focus on electric and gas-driven vehicles.
Regarding investment, the report rates GAIL as a Buy, predicting the company will benefit from improved gas infrastructure, range-bound LNG pricing, and new customers. It also rates HPCL, BPCL, and IOCL as Buy, benefiting from weak oil prices. However, it advises a Reduce rating on ONGC due to the risk of falling oil prices and a Hold rating on PLNG, based on investments in petrochemicals and competing regas terminals.
The report concludes that global oil prices will face downward pressure, but gas prices are expected to rise in the near term. According to HSBC's European oil research head, Kim Fustier, while OPEC+ may manage the situation for now, the 2025 market remains balanced, with the outlook worsening for 2026 as surplus production grows if volumes return.
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